Graphics cards: the end of the tunnel?

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In recent days, there has been a wave of optimism in the hardware community regarding graphics cards. While strolling on the serveur discord d’Overclocking.com, we overhear conversations raving about the green color of the stocks of certain resellers, prices which, according to the cousin of a deliveryman’s brother, should drop shortly… In short, life seems good, some even going as far as to rave about the potential arrival of an RTX 3050 at “only” 500€. The “children” who mine with their RTX on dad’s EDF account are also more discreet and the hunt for GPU farms is on everywhere.

Graphics Cards

So have we hit rock bottom, are we on a plateau, is the situation still tense? We are going to give you some elements so that you can form a real opinion on the current and future situation for the next few weeks.

Graphics cards: Mining down sharply yes but…

One thing is unequivocal, it is the drop in demand related to mining. Several objective reasons explain the trend. First of all thehe transition to Ethereum 2.0 is getting closer every day making investing in GPUs for mining more and more uncertain. Added to this, a sharp drop in crypto values, including of course ETH, which has been accumulating bad news since the end of the year. with a will of several states to “break” the mining farms. This situation will therefore restore a certain level of oxygen to the market by slowing inventory rotations and forcing certain traders to have a little less heavy hand on margins.

graphics cards
Graphics Cards: the figures of 3Dcenter explained by the govt…

…But the production doesn’t work out.

However, objectively, on the production front, the situation is not getting better. TSMC did not mount any additional “Fabs” between Christmas and New Years and overall, the prices of all the components are on the rise. A phenomenon that several analysts believe will last for at least the first three quarters of this year. Demand remains much higher than supply and this is a situation that cannot lead to a drop in prices.

However, some signals are noticeable.

It is true that for nearly a week, the level of stocks at distributors and specialist retailers has been much higher. Under these conditions, the customer has more choice, he buys more slowly and somehow “forces” merchants to be more commercially dynamic.

graphics cardsBut this situation is actually cyclical. It reflects two events whose addition artificially “boosts” availability:

At Nvidia, Santa Claus comes at the end of January.

First of all, the end of the fiscal year at Nvidia does not correspond with the calendar year. The year of the greens ends on January 31. Under these conditions, everything is done to deliver a maximum of GPUs in order to heal its balance sheet. This is not new at Nvidia and this phenomenon is observable every year: January is often the best month in terms of delivery.

Chinese New Year: this year earlier

As you know, GPUs are part of the problem. Then you have to produce the cards and most brands use to this china. Each year, however, the pace of production is interrupted by Chinese New Year celebrations. Last year, the date corresponded in our calendar to February 12, this year it is February 1. Nvidia and the brands have therefore been in a speed race for deliveries for a few days. Indeed, the celebrations will last 16 days, until the Lantern Festival, which is the culmination of the celebrations, on February 15, 2022.

Graphics Cards: Better but misleading.

So you will understand that the effect observed at the moment absolutely cannot be considered as an underlying trend. From the end of January, deliveries will therefore fall to enter a tunnel of at least 3 weeks. The situation should once again become tense. On the other hand, it is not forbidden to hope for a certain relaxation given the relative technical unemployment of scalpers and miners. Traders must rediscover their profession: make offers, avoid over-margining, be more aggressive than the competitor… All in an environment that will remain bullish but maybe a little less delusional.

In recent days, there has been a wave of optimism in the hardware community regarding graphics cards. While strolling on the serveur discord d’Overclocking.com, we overhear conversations raving about the green color of the stocks of certain resellers, prices which, according to the cousin of a deliveryman’s brother, should drop…

In recent days, there has been a wave of optimism in the hardware community regarding graphics cards. While strolling on the serveur discord d’Overclocking.com, we overhear conversations raving about the green color of the stocks of certain resellers, prices which, according to the cousin of a deliveryman’s brother, should drop…

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